Is the Tipping Point Toast?

Thanks to Google Reader, I came across an article on Duncan Watts Fast Company. Watts, a professor of Sociology who studies networks and is currently working for Yahoo, argues that the influencers, those cool folks on the cutting edge of fashion, art, etc, are not as crucial to the success of a trends as critics such as Malcolm Gladwell claim. Society needs to be open and ready to a concept before it can take root and flourish. In his opinion, "success in a networked society is random" and the best approach from a marketing standpoint is saturating the masses.

I think that Gladwell's argument in The Tipping Point was persuasive, but I like Watts' acknowledgement of just how unpredictable the business of marketing is. I think people would prefer believing that if you are influential, persuasive and just plain cool enough, you can drive success of something. It allows people to feel more in control and helps give meaning to trends people may just not understand. Placing greater importance on the role of influencers also helps experts find and retain jobs, I think. For Watts, it's true that you need to push ideas through social networks but it's never clear who plays the crucial role for making something huge.

It's interesting to me that Watts has gone to work at Yahoo with Jonah Peretti on a form of advertising called Big Seed marketing which targets as broad an audience as possible because of the uncertainty. As interesting as I find his ideas, I'm wary of seeing theory made into practice. It seems to me as if he's aiming for a kind of media carpet bombing--you don't know who needs to get pulverized by information so you'll make sure we're all victims.